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Clarity | Prediction Markets
All
TSLA
AAPL
GOOGL
NVDA
MSFT
META
AMZN
IXIC
XLK
APLD
Will one of the 2026 Forbes 30 under 30 be incarcerated in 2026?
50%
chance
Yes
0.50 / share
50%
chance
No
0.50 / share
5 vol.
Will one of the 2026 Forbes 30 under 30 go bankrupt in 2026?
50%
chance
Yes
0.50 / share
50%
chance
No
0.50 / share
0 vol.
Best performing stock in December?
CVNA
Yes
50%
GOOGL
Yes
50%
5,658 vol.
Nasdaq price at end of December?
Over 20,000
Yes
92%
Over 22,000
Yes
79%
2,429 vol.
Which public company will finish 2025 with the largest market cap?
Nvidia (NVDA)
Yes
60%
Apple (AAPL)
Yes
27%
10,267 vol.
Which of these top tech company CEOs will remain by end of 2026?
Mark Zuckerberg (Meta)
Yes
55%
Jensen Huang (Nvidia)
Yes
55%
159 vol.
Polymarket IPO in 2026?
21%
chance
Yes
0.21 / share
79%
chance
No
0.79 / share
450 vol.
Crude oil prices up in December?
51%
chance
Yes
0.51 / share
49%
chance
No
0.49 / share
11 vol.
Will the Technology Sector collapse in 2026?
51%
chance
Yes
0.51 / share
49%
chance
No
0.49 / share
5 vol.
Will December monthly retail sales increase?
50%
chance
Yes
0.50 / share
50%
chance
No
0.50 / share
6,500 vol.
Which of the following sectors will have the highest total return in December 2025?
XLK (Technology)
18%
XLV (Health Care)
33%
XLE (Energy)
31%
XLY (Consumer Discretionary)
18%
175 vol.
Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in 2026?
28%
chance
Yes
0.28 / share
72%
chance
No
0.72 / share
300 vol.
Will the Democrats win control of the U.S. House in 2026?
50%
chance
Yes
0.50 / share
50%
chance
No
0.50 / share
0 vol.
Best performing commodity in December?
Gold
24%
Silver
28%
Oil
24%
Coffee
24%
249 vol.
Fed to cut interest rates in December?
85%
chance
Yes
0.85 / share
15%
chance
No
0.15 / share
1,665 vol.
SP&500 price at end of December?
Over 5200
Yes
91%
Over 6000
Yes
55%
1,062 vol.
Bitcoin price at end of December?
Over 30,000
Yes
94%
Over 70,000
Yes
85%
2,831 vol.
Will Kalshi IPO by end of 2026?
43%
chance
Yes
0.43 / share
57%
chance
No
0.57 / share
7,826 vol.
Will Donald Trump complete his full presidential term (January 20, 2025 - January 20, 2029) without being removed from office?
50%
chance
Yes
0.50 / share
50%
chance
No
0.50 / share
499 vol.
Car crashes in the United States this winter?
Over 400,000
Yes
77%
Over 450,000
Yes
50%
650 vol.
Applied Digital (APLD) close price end of 2025?
Over $15.0?
Yes
55%
Over $20.0?
Yes
52%
190 vol.
Will Congress pass legislation allowing 50-year mortgages as qualified mortgages by the end of 2026?
13%
chance
Yes
0.13 / share
87%
chance
No
0.87 / share
717 vol.
Will the US experience a recession in 2026?
50%
chance
Yes
0.50 / share
50%
chance
No
0.50 / share
0 vol.
Will President Trump be impeached for a THIRD time before his second term ends?
34%
chance
Yes
0.34 / share
66%
chance
No
0.66 / share
205 vol.
Will Winter 2025-2026 be the coldest winter in recorded U.S. history?
19%
chance
Yes
0.19 / share
81%
chance
No
0.81 / share
711 vol.
Will OpenAI IPO at a valuation of $1 trillion or more by December 2027?
48%
chance
Yes
0.48 / share
52%
chance
No
0.52 / share
20 vol.
Will Discord IPO by July 2026?
60%
chance
Yes
0.60 / share
40%
chance
No
0.40 / share
111 vol.
Opendoor (OPEN) close price end of 2025?
Above $0.50
Yes
93%
Above $1.00
Yes
85%
15,269 vol.
Will HIMS still have compounded GLP-1s available for sale at the end of 2025?
72%
chance
Yes
0.72 / share
28%
chance
No
0.28 / share
1,469 vol.
Which Mag-7 stock will have the best performance in 2025?
META
1%
MSFT
1%
NVDA
1%
AMZN
0%
GOOGL
94%
TSLA
3%
AAPL
0%
11,882 vol.
Which company will have the best AI model at the end of 2025?
Google (Gemini)
45%
OpenAI (GPT)
4%
Meta (Llama)
0%
Anthropic (Claude)
33%
X (Grok)
17%
DeepSeek (DeepSeek)
0%
Microsoft (Phi)
0%
Other
1%
7,228 vol.
Which of the top tech company CEOs will still be in their role on January 1, 2026?
Jenson Huang (NVIDIA)
Yes
98%
Elon Musk (Tesla)
Yes
98%
25,005 vol.
Will Elon Musk and Tesla face targeted legal or regulatory action following his falling out with Donald Trump?
9%
chance
Yes
0.09 / share
91%
chance
No
0.91 / share
3,304 vol.
Will Tesla officially announce a new vehicle model for retail sale by the end of 2025?
43%
chance
Yes
0.43 / share
57%
chance
No
0.57 / share
6,056 vol.
Will the US experience a recession in 2025?
17%
chance
Yes
0.17 / share
83%
chance
No
0.83 / share
4,025 vol.
Will the SPY finish positive this year?
96%
chance
Yes
0.96 / share
4%
chance
No
0.04 / share
1,024 vol.