Resolution Criteria
This market resolves YES if:
OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) with an initial market capitalization of $1 trillion or more at the close of its first day of trading.
This market resolves NO if:
- OpenAI IPOs with an initial market cap below $1 trillion
- OpenAI does not complete an IPO by the resolution deadline
- OpenAI goes public through an alternative method (SPAC, direct listing, acquisition) with a valuation below $1 trillion
Specific Resolution Details
Valuation Measurement
Market capitalization at the close of the first trading day, calculated as:
Share price at close × Total shares outstanding = Market cap
Timeline
This market will remain open until December 31, 2027, or until OpenAI completes an IPO, whichever comes first.
Data Sources (in order of priority)
- Official stock exchange data (NYSE, NASDAQ, etc.)
- Bloomberg Terminal market data
- Financial press consensus (Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Bloomberg News)
- Company SEC filings (Form S-1, 8-K)
What Counts as an IPO
- Traditional initial public offering on a major U.S. exchange
- Direct listing on a major U.S. exchange
- Listing on major international exchanges (LSE, HKEX, etc.)
What Does NOT Count
- Secondary share sales while still private
- SPAC mergers (unless explicitly marketed as IPO-equivalent)
- Private valuations or funding rounds
- Acquisitions or reverse mergers
Calculation Details
- Over $1 trillion: Market resolves YES
- Use closing price on first trading day (not opening price or intraday peaks)
- If trading is halted on first day, use the first full trading day's close
- Currency: USD. If listed on non-US exchange, convert at prevailing exchange rate on closing day
Edge Cases
- No IPO by Dec 31, 2027: Market resolves NO
- OpenAI acquired before IPO: Market resolves NO
- Company splits before IPO: Adjust calculation to reflect combined entity value
- Partial IPO (spinoff): Only the entity going public counts, not parent company value
- Multiple tranches: Use total market cap after all initial tranches are priced
- Market volatility: First-day close is definitive, regardless of subsequent price movements
Key Context
OpenAI's current private valuation is $500 billion as of October 2025 . Reports suggest OpenAI is considering filing for an IPO as early as H2 2026, targeting a $1 trillion valuation , though OpenAI officially stated "an IPO is not our focus" .