This market predicts whether individuals who complete an undergraduate bachelor’s degree in calendar year 2026 will record the highest unemployment rate of any U.S. graduating cohort from 2000 through 2026, measured two quarters after the typical graduation period (Q4 of the same calendar year).
This market resolves to “Yes” if the U.S. unemployment rate for the 2026 graduating cohort is strictly higher than the unemployment rate measured for any graduating cohort from 2000–2025, taken at the end of Q4 of each cohort’s graduation year.
This market resolves to “No” if any cohort from 2000–2025 has an equal or higher unemployment rate.
Data must come from official U.S. government labor statistics or successor agencies that report unemployment segmented by educational attainment and graduation cohort.
If cohort-specific unemployment data is missing for any year in the 2000–2026 range, the market resolves N/A (void).
Seasonal adjustments are allowed if that is the primary format of the data source.
If multiple official datasets conflict, the most recently published revised figure takes precedence.
If the reporting methodology changes materially, resolution administrators must determine the closest reasonable equivalence and document the method used.