Market Details

Binary Outcome

• YES: Trump completes his term and leaves office on or after January 20, 2029
• NO: Trump is removed from office before January 20, 2029

Time Period

• Term Start: January 20, 2025
• Term End: January 20, 2029 at 12:00 PM ET
• Resolution Deadline: January 21, 2029

Geographic Scope

United States Federal Government

What Counts as "Removed from Office"

This market resolves NO if Trump leaves the presidency before January 20, 2029 due to:

1. Impeachment and Removal: Impeached by the House of Representatives and convicted by the Senate (requires 2/3 Senate vote)

2. 25th Amendment Removal: Declared unable to discharge the powers and duties of office by the Vice President and a majority of the Cabinet (or other body designated by Congress), with Congress confirming the inability

3. Resignation: Voluntary resignation from office for any reason

4. Death: Death while in office

5. Other Legal Removal: Any other constitutional or legal mechanism that results in Trump no longer holding the office of President

What Does NOT Count as Removal

This market resolves YES (Trump completes term) if:

• Trump serves until January 20, 2029 and transfers power normally
• Trump loses re-election and leaves office on January 20, 2029 (Note: This is his final term regardless)
• Trump is temporarily unable to perform duties under 25th Amendment but resumes office before term ends
• Articles of impeachment are filed but he is not convicted by the Senate
• Trump faces legal troubles but remains in office