Resolution Criteria
This market resolves YES if:
The U.S. House of Representatives votes to impeach President Donald Trump at any time between November 5, 2025 (today) and January 20, 2029 (end of second term).
This market resolves NO if:
Trump completes his second term on January 20, 2029 without being impeached by the House.
Specific Resolution Details
What Counts as "Impeachment"
Impeachment requires a simple majority vote in the U.S. House of Representatives to adopt articles of impeachment. Senate conviction is NOT required for this market to resolve YES.
Timeline
- Start: November 5, 2025 (today)
- End: January 20, 2029 at 12:00 PM ET (end of second presidential term)
Data Sources (in order of priority)
- Official House of Representatives roll call votes
- House Clerk's official records
- Congressional Record
- Major news outlets consensus (NYT, WSJ, AP, Reuters, Bloomberg)
Timing
Market resolves within 24 hours of House impeachment vote (or within 24 hours of January 20, 2029 if no impeachment occurs).
Calculation Details
- Only House impeachment vote matters - Senate trial/conviction is irrelevant
- Must be an official impeachment of Donald Trump as President
- Articles must be formally adopted by House floor vote
- Committee votes or impeachment inquiries without formal House vote do NOT count
Edge Cases
- Trump resigns before impeachment vote: Market resolves NO (he wasn't impeached)
- Trump dies in office: Market resolves NO (can't impeach after death)
- Trump removed via 25th Amendment: Market resolves NO (different mechanism)
- Impeachment vote on January 20, 2029: Counts as YES if vote occurs before 12:00 PM ET
- Multiple impeachments: First successful impeachment vote resolves market as YES
- Censure or other House actions: Do NOT count - only formal impeachment matters
- Impeachment articles filed but not voted on: Market resolves NO
Historical Context
Donald Trump is the only U.S. president to be impeached twice:
- December 18, 2019: Abuse of power and obstruction of Congress (Ukraine investigation)
- January 13, 2021: Incitement of insurrection (January 6 Capitol attack)
Both times the Senate acquitted him.
Political Landscape Context
Current Situation (Nov 2025):
- Republicans control the House (as of 2024 elections)
- Trump began second term January 20, 2025
- 2026 Midterms will determine House control for 2027-2028
Path to Impeachment:
For Trump to be impeached again, one of these scenarios must occur:
- Republicans impeach him: Extremely unlikely barring catastrophic scandal
- Democrats win House in 2026 midterms: Historical trend favors opposition party, then Democrats would need to decide impeachment is worthwhile