The meteorological winter of 2025-2026 (December 2025 - February 2026) has a lower average temperature for the contiguous United States than the current record coldest winter.
Winter 2025-2026 does NOT break the record for coldest winter.
Meteorological winter: December 1, 2025 through February 28, 2026 (3 months)
Contiguous United States only (48 states, excluding Alaska and Hawaii)
Average temperature across the contiguous U.S. for the entire 3-month period, as calculated and reported by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).
The winter of 1978-1979 holds the record as the coldest winter on record for the contiguous United States . Winter 2025-2026 must have a lower average temperature than 1978-1979 to resolve YES.
Market resolves within 30 days of NOAA releasing the official February 2026 climate report (typically released in early-to-mid March 2026).
The winter of 1978-1979 saw conditions that allowed the jet stream to dip further south, bringing prolonged cold air outbreaks across large portions of the nation . The winter of 1935-1936 was also exceptionally cold, with February 1936 being the coldest February on record .
Winter 2025-2026 forecasts predict near-normal to slightly milder temperatures across much of the country, with warmer-than-average conditions forecast for the South and Northeast . A developing La Niña typically brings warmer conditions to southern states and cooler conditions in the North during winter .