Resolution Source

This market resolves based on the Federal Reserve’s official policy statement released at the conclusion of the December 2025 FOMC meeting (scheduled for Dec 9–10, 2025), as published on federalreserve.gov.

Resolution Criteria

YES resolves if and only if the Federal Open Market Committee announces a decrease in the target range for the federal funds rate compared to the range in effect immediately prior to the meeting.

• A decrease of any size (≥ 0.25 percentage points) counts as YES.
• Projections, commentary, speeches, or press conference statements do not affect resolution.

NO resolves if:

• The FOMC keeps the target range unchanged, or
• The FOMC raises the target range.

Settlement

• The market settles once the Fed publishes the official statement on its website.
• If the Fed delays or reschedules the meeting, resolution occurs after the eventual statement is released.
• If the meeting is canceled with no rate action taken, the market resolves NO.