Time Period
Winter 2025-2026 is defined as:
- December 2025 (all days)
- January 2026 (all days)
- February 2026 (all days)
Geographic Scope
United States nationwide (all 50 states, Washington D.C., and U.S. territories)
What Counts as a Weather-Related Crash
A crash is counted if it occurs during or is attributed to one or more of the following winter weather conditions:
- Snow, sleet, or hail
- Icy or slushy pavement
- Freezing rain
- Winter fog or reduced visibility
- Any crash where weather is listed as a contributing factor during the specified winter months
This includes:
- Fatal crashes
- Injury crashes
- Property-damage-only crashes
Resolution Statement
This market will resolve based on official data from:
PRIMARY SOURCE:
SECONDARY SOURCES (if FHWA data is unavailable or incomplete):
- National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) FARS (Fatality Analysis Reporting System) supplemented with state-level crash reports
- Data portal: crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov
Resolution Process
-
Data Release Timeline: Official crash data for the 2025-2026 winter period is expected to be available by June 2026 (preliminary estimates) and September 2026 (final statistics).
-
Resolution Date: This market will resolve by October 1, 2026, using the most recent official data available at that time.
-
Counting Method:
- The total number of weather-related crashes will be summed across all three months (December 2025, January 2026, February 2026)
- If exact weather-related crash numbers are not available, the resolution will use the best available estimate from FHWA or NHTSA data, including state-level aggregated reports