Resolution Criteria
This market resolves to the company with the highest percentage return during November 2025
Calculation:
[(Closing price Nov 29, 2025 - Closing price Oct 31, 2025) / Closing price Oct 31, 2025] × 100
Specific Resolution Details
Companies
- Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG)
- Cava Group (NYSE: CAVA)
- Sweetgreen (NYSE: SG)
Measurement Period
- Start: Closing price on October 31, 2025 (last trading day of October)
- End: Closing price on November 28, 2025 (last trading day of November - markets closed Nov 27 for Thanksgiving, so likely Nov 28)
Note: If November 28 is not a trading day, use the last trading day of November
Data Sources (in order of priority)
- Official closing prices from NYSE
- Yahoo Finance adjusted closing prices
- Bloomberg Terminal data
- Google Finance
Timing
Market resolves within 24 hours of market close on the last trading day of November 2025.
Calculation Details
- Use percentage return, not absolute dollar change
- Calculate to two decimal places (e.g., 5.47%)
- Ties: If two companies have identical returns to two decimal places, the company with higher absolute dollar gain per share wins
- Three-way tie: Market resolves N/A and refunds all positions (extremely unlikely)
Examples
Example 1:
- CMG: Oct 31 = $50.00, Nov 28 = $55.00 → +10.00% ✓ WINS
- CAVA: Oct 31 = $60.00, Nov 28 = $65.00 → +8.33%
- SG: Oct 31 = $30.00, Nov 28 = $32.00 → +6.67%
Example 2 (negative returns):
- CMG: -5.00%
- CAVA: -2.50% ✓ WINS (least negative = best performance)
- SG: -8.00%
Edge Cases
- Stock splits during November: Adjust prices for split ratio
- Dividends: Use regular closing price, not adjusted for dividends (these companies don't typically pay dividends anyway)
- Trading halts: If trading is halted on final day, use last available closing price before halt
- Delisting: If a company delists during November, it automatically loses (0% return assigned)
- Merger/acquisition announced: Use actual stock price performance through month end
What Does NOT Affect Resolution
- Earnings beats/misses
- Analyst upgrades/downgrades
- News sentiment
- Revenue or profit performance
- Same-store sales growth
Only stock price performance matters.
Market Context
Why these three?
All three companies are publicly traded fast-casual restaurants specializing in customizable bowls:
- Chipotle: Largest, most established (burritos, bowls, tacos)
- Cava: Mediterranean-focused (pitas, bowls, salads)
- Sweetgreen: Salad-focused (bowls, warm bowls, salads)
Recent Performance Note:
As of early November 2025, Chipotle has the largest market cap and is the most mature, while Cava and Sweetgreen are growth stories with higher volatility.